当前全球地缘政治格局正经历深刻重塑。
从海湾地区的突发冲突，到霍尔木兹海峡的封锁引发的能源危机，再到主要大国之间的贸易摩擦与关税对抗，世界似乎正步入一个动荡与不确定性并存的新阶段。
然而，在竞争加剧、冲突频发的表象之下，国际关系中也在悄然浮现出一些意料之外的积极信号。大国之间的博弈虽未止息，但在某些关键领域，有限协调与相互依赖的理性回归，正为全球秩序注入新的稳定因子。
在这样的背景下，新加坡外交家、新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院创始院长马凯硕，在第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会上以《地缘博弈下的新世界——竞争加剧与有限协调并存》为题发表演讲，提出了他对当前世界局势的独到见解。
马凯硕从三个“令人惊喜的积极发展”出发，为理解当前全球格局提供了审慎且乐观的判断：
一是中美关系在双向依赖中实现意外稳定，高层互动常态化，为全球稳定筑牢基石；
二是全球经济展现为我们在复杂局势中寻找希望与方向提供了宝贵视角。
放、拒绝跟风保护主义；
三是东亚依托东盟机制形成长期和平生态，成为动荡世界中的稳定绿洲。
毫无疑问，这些见解将为我们在复杂局势中寻找希望与方向提供了宝贵视角。
以下是现场实录，由投中网整理编辑：
Hello, everyone. It is a great pleasure to join the 20th ChinaVenture Investment Conference Annual Summit and to share my thoughts with you all on the state of our world.
大家好。非常荣幸能参加第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会，并与各位分享我对当前世界局势的看法。
As we all know, we do live in troubled times.
众所周知，我们确实生活在一个动荡不安的时代。
Certainly, when the year 2026 began, few of us expected that a major war would break out in the Gulf region that led to, sadly, loss of lives, infrastructure and finally, the surprising dramatic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we know, has created massive energy shortages, an increase in the price of many of the products we buy every day, and certainly appall over the global economy.
诚然，当2026年伊始，我们中很少有人预料到海湾地区会爆发一场重大战争。令人遗憾的是，这场战争导致了人员伤亡和基础设施的损毁，并最终导致了霍尔木兹海峡出人意料的剧烈封锁，众所周知，这引发了大规模的能源短缺，推高了我们日常购买的许多产品的价格，并且无疑给全球经济蒙上了一层阴影。
And it's understandable, therefore, for all of us to focus on the bad news and to see what we can do to deal with it.
因此，大家关注这些坏消息并想方设法去应对，是完全可以理解的。
And certainly, there are many challenges that we have to deal with.
毫无疑问，我们面临着许多必须应对的挑战。
But at the same time, for those of us, especially those of us who live in East Asia, we should also take note of some of the positive developments that we have seen in our region.
但与此同时，对于我们，特别是那些生活在东亚的人们来说，我们也应该注意到我们在本地区所看到的一些积极发展。
And in my remarks today, I would like to talk about three surprising positive developments that were in many ways, unanticipated.
在今天的发言中，我想谈谈三个在很多方面都出乎意料的、令人惊喜的积极发展。
The first one concerns the most important geopolitical relationship in the world.
第一个发展关乎世界上最重要的地缘政治关系。
And as we all know, the most important geopolitical relationship in the world is always the one between the world's number one power, which today is the United States of America, and the world's number one emerging power, which today is China.
众所周知，世界上最重要的地缘政治关系始终是世界头号强国，也就是今天的美国，与世界头号新兴强国，即今天的中国，他们之间的关系。
And when many analysts look at this relationship, they were predicting, and frankly, as I did too, when I published my book Has China Won in 2020, which, by the way, has been translated to Chinese, I did predict that the relationship would become very challenging, certainly over the course of the decade of the 2020s.
当许多分析人士审视这段关系时，他们都曾预测——坦白说，我也一样，当我在2020年出版《中国赢了吗？》一书时（顺便提一下，这本书已经被翻译成了中文），我确实预测过——在整个21世纪20年代，这段关系肯定会变得极具挑战性。
And yes, we have seen lots of ups and downs, but to my surprise, in 2026, the relationship has become remarkably stable.
的确，我们看到了许多起起落落，但令我惊讶的是，在2026年，这段关系变得异常稳定。
How did this happen? Several factors. The first, of course, is the fact that as a result of the “Liberation Day” tariffs launched by the Trump administration in April 2025, both sides had a major economic clash.
这是如何发生的呢？有几个因素。首先，当然是因为特朗普政府在2025年4月发起的“解放日”关税，导致双方发生了一场重大的经济冲突。
In that economic clash, both sides also came to realize that they were mutually dependent on each other.
在那场冲突中，双方也逐渐意识到彼此是相互依赖的。
That mutual interdependence came as a big surprise certainly to many policymakers in Washington, DC.
这种相互依存的关系确实让华盛顿特区的许多政策制定者大感意外。
The United States thought, not unreasonably, that since the United States has the world's biggest market and since China exported goods to the American market, the United States though that it had the upper hand in this contest.
美国曾认为既然美国拥有世界上最大的市场，而且中国向其出口了那么多商品，美国应当在这场较量中占据上风，这并非没有道理。
But when China responded by cutting off the supply of rare earths and magnets and minerals to United States, the United States came to realize that this relationship of dependency was not one way.
但当中国通过切断对美国的稀土、磁铁和矿产供应作为回应时，美国才意识到这种依赖关系并不是单向的。
It was a two way relationship of dependency.
这是一种双向的依赖关系。
And this discovery led to both sides, retreating from an all out trade war, and the relationship stabilize.
这一发现导致双方从全面贸易战中各退一步，关系也随之稳定下来。
And indeed, it's one of the relationships that should have occupied and taken up a lot of our attention in 2026. But instead, in 2026, we are probably going to see, for the first time in a long time, a lot of bilateral meetings between the president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and the president of China, Xi Jinping.
事实上，这本该是我们在2026年占据和花费大量注意力去关注的关系之一。但相反，在2026年，我们很可能会看到——这是很长一段时间以来的首次——特朗普总统与主席之间将举行大量的双边会晤。
I believe the meeting in May is likely to happen.
我相信5月份的会晤很有可能会成行。
I believe that the two leaders are likely to meet each other also at the G20 meeting and the APEC meeting.
我相信两位领导人也很可能在G20峰会和APEC会议上会面。
And this was quite possibly a reciprocal visit by President Xi to Washington, DC.
这很可能还包括主席对华盛顿的对等访问。
So I can tell you that this relatively positive and stable relationship between the US and China is a remarkably positive development, and one that will be good for the world, because when the two major economic powers of the world, US and China, have a stable relationship, this stable relationship provides a strong foundation for other relationships to also grow and emerge in the process.
所以我可以告诉你们，中美之间这种相对积极和稳定的关系是一个非常积极的发展，对世界也有好处。因为当世界上两个主要经济大国——美国和中国——保持稳定关系时，这种稳定的关系就为其他关系在这一过程中的发展和涌现提供了坚实的基础。
And all this, of course, leads me to my second positive development of the year.
当然，所有这一切将引出今年的第二个积极发展。
And I can tell you that when. Again, going back to a year ago in April 20, 25, when the Trump administration launches Liberation Day tariffs and increased tariffs on many countries around the world, 50%, 70%, in the case of China, 245%, economic theory told us that when you increase tariffs so dramatically on so many countries, that would lead to a reduction of trade, that would lead to a reduction of economic growth, and that would mean that we would all be worse off as a result of those tariffs.
我可以告诉你们的是……再次回到一年前的2025年4月20日，当特朗普政府启动“解放日”关税，并对世界上许多国家大幅提高关税——50%、70%，在针对中国的情况下甚至高达245%时，经济学理论告诉我们，当你对如此多的国家如此大幅度地提高关税时，将导致贸易萎缩，将导致经济增长放缓，这意味着我们所有人的境遇都将因为这些关税而变得更糟。
And I can tell you that the International Monetary Fund, which clearly is one of the most respected global economic institutions, did come out with a projection in 2025, saying that in 2025, the global economy would slow down, that global trade would diminish, and countries will also see slower economic growth.
并且我可以告诉你们，国际货币基金组织（IMF）——它显然是最受尊敬的全球经济机构之一——确实在2025年发布了一项预测，称2025年全球经济将会放缓，全球贸易将会萎缩，各国也将经历更缓慢的经济增长。
But as we all know now, that didn't happen.
但正如我们现在都知道的，那并没有发生。
In fact, the global economy grew significantly in 2025. And even more amazingly, despite the launch of these many tariffs by the United States, global trade didn't diminish.
事实上，2025年全球经济实现了显著增长。更令人惊叹的是，尽管美国发起了这么多关税，全球贸易并没有萎缩。
In fact, global trade grew in 2025.
事实上，全球贸易在2025年还增长了。
And even though many countries were expected to see slower growth, surprisingly, some of them saw faster growth.
尽管预期许多国家的经济增长会放缓，但令人惊讶的是，其中一些国家却实现了更快的增长。
I mean, take the case, for example, of my country, Singapore and Singapore, you know, Singapore's capital income is $94000.
我的意思是，以我的国家新加坡为例，你们知道，新加坡的人均收入是94000美元。
We are one of the most globalized countries in the world.
我们是世界上全球化程度最高的国家之一。
If there had been any global economic slowdown, we would have been the first to feel it.
如果全球经济出现任何放缓，我们肯定会是最先感受到的。
And indeed, the projections for Singapore's economic growth in 2025 were that Singapore would be very well off if its economy grew by 2%.
事实上，当时对新加坡2025年经济增长的预测是，如果其经济能增长2%，新加坡的日子就已经很不错了。
Instead, in 2025, Singapore's economy grew by 5%.
然而，在2025年，新加坡的经济实际上增长了5%。
Now that's remarkable for a country with a per capita income of $94000.
对于一个人均收入达到94000美元的国家来说，这无疑是非凡的成就。
And since Singapore is by far one of the most globalized economies in the world, since our total trade is three and a half times the size of our GNP, the fact that we grew was a demonstration that something was going right in the global economy.
而且，既然新加坡是迄今为止世界上全球化程度最高的经济体之一，既然我们的贸易总额是国民生产总值（GNP）的三点五倍，我们实现增长的事实就证明了全球经济中有某些事情正在向好的方向发展。
And this was the second positive development that I wanted to highlight of our times.
这就是我想要强调的当今时代的第二个积极发展。
And as you all know, this is a big surprise indeed.
正如大家所知，这确实是一个巨大的惊喜。
When the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech and Davos in January 2026, that speech, as you know, has been much cited, much quoted, and became very famous.
2026年1月，当加拿大总理马克·卡尼在达沃斯发表演讲时，如你们所知，那篇演讲被大量引用、广为传诵，变得非常著名。
And the main point that Prime Minister Mark Carney made in his speech is that our global system has seen a major rupture.
卡尼总理在演讲中提出的主要观点是，我们的全球体系出现了重大“断裂”。
And he's right. There has been a rupture. Certainly, there's been a break from the old tradition of the United States leading the way in lowering tariffs and opening up the global economy.
他说得对。确实出现了断裂。无疑，美国一改以往在降低关税和开放全球经济方面发挥主导作用的旧传统，这是一种决裂。
So Mark Carney wasn't wrong. There has been a rupture.
所以马克·卡尼没说错。确实发生了断裂。
But what has turned out is that while it is true that there has been a rupture in the global system, we now know the global system also showed resilience in response to the rupture that we experience.
但结果证明，尽管全球体系确实出现了断裂，我们现在也知道，全球体系在应对我们所经历的断裂时展现出了韧性。
And where did this resilience come from? It's a very important question to answer.
这种韧性从何而来？这是一个需要回答的非常重要的问题。
And the answer is that that resilience have come from the decision of the other 190 over countries in the world not to follow the United States and increase their tariffs on the rest of the world.
答案是，这种韧性来自于世界上其他190多个国家的决定，即不追随美国、不对世界其他地区提高关税。
Frankly, that should have been a natural development. And because in the past, when the United States took the lead and did something, countries would say, Oh, if the United States takes the lead, and thus x, we must follow the United States and do x also.
坦白说，这本该是一种自然的发展轨迹。因为在过去，当美国带头做某件事时，各国会说：“哦，如果美国带头这么做了，那我们也必须跟随美国一起做。”
But what's remarkable is that in 2025, when the United States decided to increase tariffs on the world, not one other country followed the United States in doing so.
但引人注目的是，在2025年，当美国决定对全球提高关税时，没有一个其他国家效仿美国的做法。
Instead, quite amazingly, the vast majority of countries in the world continued with the old American philosophy of opening up their economies.
相反，极其令人惊叹的是，世界上绝大多数国家继续秉持了过去美国所倡导的开放经济的理念。
And indeed, many new free trade agreements were signed.
事实上，许多新的自由贸易协定相继签署。
So, for example, the EU had been negotiating for decades with Mercosur in Latin America, with India, with Indonesia, and all these trade agreements, for whatever reasons, could not be completed.
举个例子，欧盟数十年来一直在与拉丁美洲的南方共同市场（Mercosur）、与印度、与印尼进行谈判，但出于种种原因，所有这些贸易协定都未能达成。
But once the United States decided to increase its tariffs on the rest of the world, the rest of the world decided, Hey, we must keep up our policies of keeping our economies open and interdependent, and we must open and engage the rest of the world.
但一旦美国决定对世界其他地区提高关税，世界其他地区便决定：“嘿，我们必须坚持保持经济开放和相互依存的政策，我们必须开放并拥抱世界其他地区。”
So the rupture that Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke about resulted in a rewiring of the global system, where the rest of the world decided that they would keep their economies and keep opening up their economies to the rest of the world.
因此，马克·卡尼总理所谈到的“断裂”促成了全球体系的“重新布线”，即世界其他地区决定他们将维持其经济运转，并继续对世界其他地区开放其经济。
And so this resulted in this remarkably miraculous situation where the global economy, after suffering a major rupture with the Liberation Day tariffs, continued to grow and do well because of the rest of the world, said, we must continue with our economic growth policies. 于
是，这就带来了一个非同凡响的奇迹般局面：全球经济在经历了“解放日”关税造成的重大断裂后，依然继续增长并表现良好，因为世界其他地区表示，我们必须继续推行我们的经济增长政策。
Now let me turn to my third and final positive development.
现在让我转向我的第三个、也是最后一个积极发展。
And as we look around the world, we know that there are many trouble spots.
当我们环顾世界，我们知道存在许多动荡不安的地区。
We've seen clashes between India and Pakistan. We've seen certainly the tragedy of Gaza.
我们看到了印度和巴基斯坦之间的冲突。我们当然也看到了加沙的悲剧。
We see the ongoing war in Ukraine. And now, of course, we see this major conflict breaking out in the Gulf.
我们看到乌克兰正在进行的战争。现在，我们当然也看到了海湾地区爆发的这场重大冲突。
And as you watch all these conflicts around the world, we should also notice that one part of the world has been relatively conflict free, and that's our part of the world, especially East Asia.
当你观察世界上所有这些冲突时，我们也应该注意到，世界上有一个地区相对来说是免于冲突的，那就是我们所在的地区，特别是东亚。
In fact, there's been no major war in this region since the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979. So 47 years have gone by with no major wars.
事实上，自1979年对越自卫反击战以来，该地区就没有发生过重大战争。所以，已经过去了47年，没有发生过重大战争。
Why is this so? And the answer is that this region, is blessed that it has a regional organization called ASEAN.
为什么会这样呢？答案是，这个地区有幸拥有一个名为东盟（ASEAN）的区域性组织。
ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations founded in 1967.
东盟，即东南亚国家联盟，成立于1967年。
We'll be celebrating a 60th anniversary next year. And what's remarkable is that if you look around the world, most regional organizations are struggling or suffering, even Mercosur in Latin America, the countries cannot cooperate with each other.
明年我们将庆祝其成立60周年。引人注目的是，如果你环顾全球，大多数区域性组织都在挣扎或受挫，即使是拉丁美洲的南方共同市场（Mercosur），其成员国之间也无法开展合作。
And if you go to Africa, the African Union has a lot of challenges.
而如果你去非洲，非洲联盟也面临着许多挑战。
If you go to South Asia, the leaders of South Asia have not met under the regional organization format.
如果你去南亚，南亚的领导人们一直未能以区域组织的形式举行会晤。
The regional organization is called a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. They haven't met for years.
那个区域组织叫作南亚区域合作联盟。他们已经多年没有会面了。
By contrast, the leaders of ASEAN meet every year, indeed twice a year.
相比之下，东盟的领导人每年都会碰面，实际上是一年两次。
But not only do the leaders meet among themselves, they also invite the leaders of all the great powers to attend these ASEAN meetings.
但不仅是领导人们在内部会面，他们还邀请所有大国的领导人参加这些东盟会议。
So when ASEAN has its annual meetings, quite often the president of the United States, the Prime Minister of China, the leaders of the European Union, the Prime Minister of Japan, the president of South Korea, the Prime Minister of Australia, the Prime Minister of India, right?
所以当东盟举行其年度会议时，通常美国总统、中国总理、欧盟领导人、日本首相、韩国总统、澳大利亚总理、印度总理都会出席，对吧？
It's amazing. All these leaders come every year to this ASEAN meeting.
这太令人惊叹了。所有这些领导人每年都会来参加这个东盟会议。
Why is that so? Because they can see very clearly that what ASEAN has achieved in Southeast Asia is nothing short of a miracle, because it has created an oasis of peace and prosperity for five decades now in what should be one of the most troubled regions of the world.
为什么会这样？因为他们可以非常清楚地看到，东盟在东南亚取得的成就堪称奇迹，因为在过去的五十年里，它在一个本应是世界上最动荡的地区之一，创造了一个和平与繁荣的绿洲。
And Southeast Asia, by the way, is by far the most diversified region on planet earth, because among its 700 million people.
顺便说一句，东南亚是目前地球上最多元化的地区。
And this, the fact that we have, this well established regional organization called ASEAN has provided an anchor for the region.
而这一点，即我们拥有这个名为东盟的、发展成熟的区域性组织的事实，为该地区提供了一个压舱石。
And on the basis of this anchor, all the great powers come to Southeast Asia to engage the ASEAN countries and to also improve their relations with each other.
在这个压舱石的基础之上，所有大国都来到东南亚，与东盟国家建立联系，同时也改善彼此之间的关系。
I can tell you, for example, in the past, when relationship got difficult between, say, China and Japan, the leaders would find a way of meeting in an ASEAN meeting.
我可以告诉你们，举个例子，在过去，当中国和日本之间的关系变得困难时，两国领导人总能找到办法在东盟会议上会面。
So this ecosystem of peace in East Asia that has been generated in some ways by ASEAN over the past 50 years is one remarkably positive development that we in the region and the world also needs to pay attention to.
因此，东盟在过去50年中以某种方式促成的这种东亚和平生态系统，是一个极其积极的发展，不仅我们这个地区，整个世界也都需要对此加以关注。
Because I can tell you that on the global front, the challenges will remain.
因为我可以告诉你们，在全球层面上，挑战依然会存在。
None of us know how long the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut, how much more damage it will do the global economy, how much more stress and strain it will cause.
我们谁也不知道海湾、霍尔木兹海峡将被关闭多久，不知道它会对全球经济造成多大的进一步损害，也不知道它会引发多少进一步的压力和紧张局势。
So there will be lots of these stresses and strains coming our way.
所以我们必将面临许多这样的压力和紧张局势。
But if we can preserve the ecosystem of peace in east Asia, then we'll be protecting ourselves from many of these global challenges that will inevitably come our way.
但如果我们能够维护东亚的和平生态系统，那么我们就能保护自己免受许多不可避免地将降临到我们头上的全球性挑战的影响。
So I hope that by speaking about these three positive developments, the stabilization, number one, the stabilization of the US-China relationship, number two, the resilience of the global economy, and number three, the ecosystem of peace in East Asia, I hope I've given you some good news to reflect on as you think about the state of our world.
所以我希望通过谈论这三个积极的发展——稳定，第一，中美关系的稳定；第二，全球经济的韧性；第三，东亚的和平生态系统——我希望我已经为您提供了一些在思考当前世界局势时值得深思的好消息。
I would therefore like to conclude by wishing the 20th ChinaVenture Investment Conference Annual Summit hosted by ChinaVenture Info. great success.
因此，在发言的最后，我祝愿由投中信息主办的第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会取得圆满成功。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢大家。
加坡外交家马凯硕：地缘博弈下，三个“积极信号”正在重塑全球秩序
大国之间的博弈虽未止息，但在某些关键领域，有限协调与相互依赖的理性回归，正为全球秩序注入新的稳定因子。
当前全球地缘政治格局正经历深刻重塑。
从海湾地区的突发冲突，到霍尔木兹海峡的封锁引发的能源危机，再到主要大国之间的贸易摩擦与关税对抗，世界似乎正步入一个动荡与不确定性并存的新阶段。
然而，在竞争加剧、冲突频发的表象之下，国际关系中也在悄然浮现出一些意料之外的积极信号。大国之间的博弈虽未止息，但在某些关键领域，有限协调与相互依赖的理性回归，正为全球秩序注入新的稳定因子。
在这样的背景下，新加坡外交家、新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院创始院长马凯硕，在第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会上以《地缘博弈下的新世界——竞争加剧与有限协调并存》为题发表演讲，提出了他对当前世界局势的独到见解。
马凯硕从三个“令人惊喜的积极发展”出发，为理解当前全球格局提供了审慎且乐观的判断：
一是中美关系在双向依赖中实现意外稳定，高层互动常态化，为全球稳定筑牢基石；
二是全球经济展现为我们在复杂局势中寻找希望与方向提供了宝贵视角。
放、拒绝跟风保护主义；
三是东亚依托东盟机制形成长期和平生态，成为动荡世界中的稳定绿洲。
毫无疑问，这些见解将为我们在复杂局势中寻找希望与方向提供了宝贵视角。
以下是现场实录，由投中网整理编辑：
Hello, everyone. It is a great pleasure to join the 20th ChinaVenture Investment Conference Annual Summit and to share my thoughts with you all on the state of our world.
大家好。非常荣幸能参加第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会，并与各位分享我对当前世界局势的看法。
As we all know, we do live in troubled times.
众所周知，我们确实生活在一个动荡不安的时代。
Certainly, when the year 2026 began, few of us expected that a major war would break out in the Gulf region that led to, sadly, loss of lives, infrastructure and finally, the surprising dramatic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we know, has created massive energy shortages, an increase in the price of many of the products we buy every day, and certainly appall over the global economy.
诚然，当2026年伊始，我们中很少有人预料到海湾地区会爆发一场重大战争。令人遗憾的是，这场战争导致了人员伤亡和基础设施的损毁，并最终导致了霍尔木兹海峡出人意料的剧烈封锁，众所周知，这引发了大规模的能源短缺，推高了我们日常购买的许多产品的价格，并且无疑给全球经济蒙上了一层阴影。
And it's understandable, therefore, for all of us to focus on the bad news and to see what we can do to deal with it.
因此，大家关注这些坏消息并想方设法去应对，是完全可以理解的。
And certainly, there are many challenges that we have to deal with.
毫无疑问，我们面临着许多必须应对的挑战。
But at the same time, for those of us, especially those of us who live in East Asia, we should also take note of some of the positive developments that we have seen in our region.
但与此同时，对于我们，特别是那些生活在东亚的人们来说，我们也应该注意到我们在本地区所看到的一些积极发展。
And in my remarks today, I would like to talk about three surprising positive developments that were in many ways, unanticipated.
在今天的发言中，我想谈谈三个在很多方面都出乎意料的、令人惊喜的积极发展。
The first one concerns the most important geopolitical relationship in the world.
第一个发展关乎世界上最重要的地缘政治关系。
And as we all know, the most important geopolitical relationship in the world is always the one between the world's number one power, which today is the United States of America, and the world's number one emerging power, which today is China.
众所周知，世界上最重要的地缘政治关系始终是世界头号强国，也就是今天的美国，与世界头号新兴强国，即今天的中国，他们之间的关系。
And when many analysts look at this relationship, they were predicting, and frankly, as I did too, when I published my book Has China Won in 2020, which, by the way, has been translated to Chinese, I did predict that the relationship would become very challenging, certainly over the course of the decade of the 2020s.
当许多分析人士审视这段关系时，他们都曾预测——坦白说，我也一样，当我在2020年出版《中国赢了吗？》一书时（顺便提一下，这本书已经被翻译成了中文），我确实预测过——在整个21世纪20年代，这段关系肯定会变得极具挑战性。
And yes, we have seen lots of ups and downs, but to my surprise, in 2026, the relationship has become remarkably stable.
的确，我们看到了许多起起落落，但令我惊讶的是，在2026年，这段关系变得异常稳定。
How did this happen? Several factors. The first, of course, is the fact that as a result of the “Liberation Day” tariffs launched by the Trump administration in April 2025, both sides had a major economic clash.
这是如何发生的呢？有几个因素。首先，当然是因为特朗普政府在2025年4月发起的“解放日”关税，导致双方发生了一场重大的经济冲突。
In that economic clash, both sides also came to realize that they were mutually dependent on each other.
在那场冲突中，双方也逐渐意识到彼此是相互依赖的。
That mutual interdependence came as a big surprise certainly to many policymakers in Washington, DC.
这种相互依存的关系确实让华盛顿特区的许多政策制定者大感意外。
The United States thought, not unreasonably, that since the United States has the world's biggest market and since China exported goods to the American market, the United States though that it had the upper hand in this contest.
美国曾认为既然美国拥有世界上最大的市场，而且中国向其出口了那么多商品，美国应当在这场较量中占据上风，这并非没有道理。
But when China responded by cutting off the supply of rare earths and magnets and minerals to United States, the United States came to realize that this relationship of dependency was not one way.
但当中国通过切断对美国的稀土、磁铁和矿产供应作为回应时，美国才意识到这种依赖关系并不是单向的。
It was a two way relationship of dependency.
这是一种双向的依赖关系。
And this discovery led to both sides, retreating from an all out trade war, and the relationship stabilize.
这一发现导致双方从全面贸易战中各退一步，关系也随之稳定下来。
And indeed, it's one of the relationships that should have occupied and taken up a lot of our attention in 2026. But instead, in 2026, we are probably going to see, for the first time in a long time, a lot of bilateral meetings between the president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and the president of China, Xi Jinping.
事实上，这本该是我们在2026年占据和花费大量注意力去关注的关系之一。但相反，在2026年，我们很可能会看到——这是很长一段时间以来的首次——特朗普总统与主席之间将举行大量的双边会晤。
I believe the meeting in May is likely to happen.
我相信5月份的会晤很有可能会成行。
I believe that the two leaders are likely to meet each other also at the G20 meeting and the APEC meeting.
我相信两位领导人也很可能在G20峰会和APEC会议上会面。
And this was quite possibly a reciprocal visit by President Xi to Washington, DC.
这很可能还包括主席对华盛顿的对等访问。
So I can tell you that this relatively positive and stable relationship between the US and China is a remarkably positive development, and one that will be good for the world, because when the two major economic powers of the world, US and China, have a stable relationship, this stable relationship provides a strong foundation for other relationships to also grow and emerge in the process.
所以我可以告诉你们，中美之间这种相对积极和稳定的关系是一个非常积极的发展，对世界也有好处。因为当世界上两个主要经济大国——美国和中国——保持稳定关系时，这种稳定的关系就为其他关系在这一过程中的发展和涌现提供了坚实的基础。
And all this, of course, leads me to my second positive development of the year.
当然，所有这一切将引出今年的第二个积极发展。
And I can tell you that when. Again, going back to a year ago in April 20, 25, when the Trump administration launches Liberation Day tariffs and increased tariffs on many countries around the world, 50%, 70%, in the case of China, 245%, economic theory told us that when you increase tariffs so dramatically on so many countries, that would lead to a reduction of trade, that would lead to a reduction of economic growth, and that would mean that we would all be worse off as a result of those tariffs.
我可以告诉你们的是……再次回到一年前的2025年4月20日，当特朗普政府启动“解放日”关税，并对世界上许多国家大幅提高关税——50%、70%，在针对中国的情况下甚至高达245%时，经济学理论告诉我们，当你对如此多的国家如此大幅度地提高关税时，将导致贸易萎缩，将导致经济增长放缓，这意味着我们所有人的境遇都将因为这些关税而变得更糟。
And I can tell you that the International Monetary Fund, which clearly is one of the most respected global economic institutions, did come out with a projection in 2025, saying that in 2025, the global economy would slow down, that global trade would diminish, and countries will also see slower economic growth.
并且我可以告诉你们，国际货币基金组织（IMF）——它显然是最受尊敬的全球经济机构之一——确实在2025年发布了一项预测，称2025年全球经济将会放缓，全球贸易将会萎缩，各国也将经历更缓慢的经济增长。
But as we all know now, that didn't happen.
但正如我们现在都知道的，那并没有发生。
In fact, the global economy grew significantly in 2025. And even more amazingly, despite the launch of these many tariffs by the United States, global trade didn't diminish.
事实上，2025年全球经济实现了显著增长。更令人惊叹的是，尽管美国发起了这么多关税，全球贸易并没有萎缩。
In fact, global trade grew in 2025.
事实上，全球贸易在2025年还增长了。
And even though many countries were expected to see slower growth, surprisingly, some of them saw faster growth.
尽管预期许多国家的经济增长会放缓，但令人惊讶的是，其中一些国家却实现了更快的增长。
I mean, take the case, for example, of my country, Singapore and Singapore, you know, Singapore's capital income is $94000.
我的意思是，以我的国家新加坡为例，你们知道，新加坡的人均收入是94000美元。
We are one of the most globalized countries in the world.
我们是世界上全球化程度最高的国家之一。
If there had been any global economic slowdown, we would have been the first to feel it.
如果全球经济出现任何放缓，我们肯定会是最先感受到的。
And indeed, the projections for Singapore's economic growth in 2025 were that Singapore would be very well off if its economy grew by 2%.
事实上，当时对新加坡2025年经济增长的预测是，如果其经济能增长2%，新加坡的日子就已经很不错了。
Instead, in 2025, Singapore's economy grew by 5%.
然而，在2025年，新加坡的经济实际上增长了5%。
Now that's remarkable for a country with a per capita income of $94000.
对于一个人均收入达到94000美元的国家来说，这无疑是非凡的成就。
And since Singapore is by far one of the most globalized economies in the world, since our total trade is three and a half times the size of our GNP, the fact that we grew was a demonstration that something was going right in the global economy.
而且，既然新加坡是迄今为止世界上全球化程度最高的经济体之一，既然我们的贸易总额是国民生产总值（GNP）的三点五倍，我们实现增长的事实就证明了全球经济中有某些事情正在向好的方向发展。
And this was the second positive development that I wanted to highlight of our times.
这就是我想要强调的当今时代的第二个积极发展。
And as you all know, this is a big surprise indeed.
正如大家所知，这确实是一个巨大的惊喜。
When the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech and Davos in January 2026, that speech, as you know, has been much cited, much quoted, and became very famous.
2026年1月，当加拿大总理马克·卡尼在达沃斯发表演讲时，如你们所知，那篇演讲被大量引用、广为传诵，变得非常著名。
And the main point that Prime Minister Mark Carney made in his speech is that our global system has seen a major rupture.
卡尼总理在演讲中提出的主要观点是，我们的全球体系出现了重大“断裂”。
And he's right. There has been a rupture. Certainly, there's been a break from the old tradition of the United States leading the way in lowering tariffs and opening up the global economy.
他说得对。确实出现了断裂。无疑，美国一改以往在降低关税和开放全球经济方面发挥主导作用的旧传统，这是一种决裂。
So Mark Carney wasn't wrong. There has been a rupture.
所以马克·卡尼没说错。确实发生了断裂。
But what has turned out is that while it is true that there has been a rupture in the global system, we now know the global system also showed resilience in response to the rupture that we experience.
但结果证明，尽管全球体系确实出现了断裂，我们现在也知道，全球体系在应对我们所经历的断裂时展现出了韧性。
And where did this resilience come from? It's a very important question to answer.
这种韧性从何而来？这是一个需要回答的非常重要的问题。
And the answer is that that resilience have come from the decision of the other 190 over countries in the world not to follow the United States and increase their tariffs on the rest of the world.
答案是，这种韧性来自于世界上其他190多个国家的决定，即不追随美国、不对世界其他地区提高关税。
Frankly, that should have been a natural development. And because in the past, when the United States took the lead and did something, countries would say, Oh, if the United States takes the lead, and thus x, we must follow the United States and do x also.
坦白说，这本该是一种自然的发展轨迹。因为在过去，当美国带头做某件事时，各国会说：“哦，如果美国带头这么做了，那我们也必须跟随美国一起做。”
But what's remarkable is that in 2025, when the United States decided to increase tariffs on the world, not one other country followed the United States in doing so.
但引人注目的是，在2025年，当美国决定对全球提高关税时，没有一个其他国家效仿美国的做法。
Instead, quite amazingly, the vast majority of countries in the world continued with the old American philosophy of opening up their economies.
相反，极其令人惊叹的是，世界上绝大多数国家继续秉持了过去美国所倡导的开放经济的理念。
And indeed, many new free trade agreements were signed.
事实上，许多新的自由贸易协定相继签署。
So, for example, the EU had been negotiating for decades with Mercosur in Latin America, with India, with Indonesia, and all these trade agreements, for whatever reasons, could not be completed.
举个例子，欧盟数十年来一直在与拉丁美洲的南方共同市场（Mercosur）、与印度、与印尼进行谈判，但出于种种原因，所有这些贸易协定都未能达成。
But once the United States decided to increase its tariffs on the rest of the world, the rest of the world decided, Hey, we must keep up our policies of keeping our economies open and interdependent, and we must open and engage the rest of the world.
但一旦美国决定对世界其他地区提高关税，世界其他地区便决定：“嘿，我们必须坚持保持经济开放和相互依存的政策，我们必须开放并拥抱世界其他地区。”
So the rupture that Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke about resulted in a rewiring of the global system, where the rest of the world decided that they would keep their economies and keep opening up their economies to the rest of the world.
因此，马克·卡尼总理所谈到的“断裂”促成了全球体系的“重新布线”，即世界其他地区决定他们将维持其经济运转，并继续对世界其他地区开放其经济。
And so this resulted in this remarkably miraculous situation where the global economy, after suffering a major rupture with the Liberation Day tariffs, continued to grow and do well because of the rest of the world, said, we must continue with our economic growth policies. 于
是，这就带来了一个非同凡响的奇迹般局面：全球经济在经历了“解放日”关税造成的重大断裂后，依然继续增长并表现良好，因为世界其他地区表示，我们必须继续推行我们的经济增长政策。
Now let me turn to my third and final positive development.
现在让我转向我的第三个、也是最后一个积极发展。
And as we look around the world, we know that there are many trouble spots.
当我们环顾世界，我们知道存在许多动荡不安的地区。
We've seen clashes between India and Pakistan. We've seen certainly the tragedy of Gaza.
我们看到了印度和巴基斯坦之间的冲突。我们当然也看到了加沙的悲剧。
We see the ongoing war in Ukraine. And now, of course, we see this major conflict breaking out in the Gulf.
我们看到乌克兰正在进行的战争。现在，我们当然也看到了海湾地区爆发的这场重大冲突。
And as you watch all these conflicts around the world, we should also notice that one part of the world has been relatively conflict free, and that's our part of the world, especially East Asia.
当你观察世界上所有这些冲突时，我们也应该注意到，世界上有一个地区相对来说是免于冲突的，那就是我们所在的地区，特别是东亚。
In fact, there's been no major war in this region since the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979. So 47 years have gone by with no major wars.
事实上，自1979年对越自卫反击战以来，该地区就没有发生过重大战争。所以，已经过去了47年，没有发生过重大战争。
Why is this so? And the answer is that this region, is blessed that it has a regional organization called ASEAN.
为什么会这样呢？答案是，这个地区有幸拥有一个名为东盟（ASEAN）的区域性组织。
ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations founded in 1967.
东盟，即东南亚国家联盟，成立于1967年。
We'll be celebrating a 60th anniversary next year. And what's remarkable is that if you look around the world, most regional organizations are struggling or suffering, even Mercosur in Latin America, the countries cannot cooperate with each other.
明年我们将庆祝其成立60周年。引人注目的是，如果你环顾全球，大多数区域性组织都在挣扎或受挫，即使是拉丁美洲的南方共同市场（Mercosur），其成员国之间也无法开展合作。
And if you go to Africa, the African Union has a lot of challenges.
而如果你去非洲，非洲联盟也面临着许多挑战。
If you go to South Asia, the leaders of South Asia have not met under the regional organization format.
如果你去南亚，南亚的领导人们一直未能以区域组织的形式举行会晤。
The regional organization is called a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. They haven't met for years.
那个区域组织叫作南亚区域合作联盟。他们已经多年没有会面了。
By contrast, the leaders of ASEAN meet every year, indeed twice a year.
相比之下，东盟的领导人每年都会碰面，实际上是一年两次。
But not only do the leaders meet among themselves, they also invite the leaders of all the great powers to attend these ASEAN meetings.
但不仅是领导人们在内部会面，他们还邀请所有大国的领导人参加这些东盟会议。
So when ASEAN has its annual meetings, quite often the president of the United States, the Prime Minister of China, the leaders of the European Union, the Prime Minister of Japan, the president of South Korea, the Prime Minister of Australia, the Prime Minister of India, right?
所以当东盟举行其年度会议时，通常美国总统、中国总理、欧盟领导人、日本首相、韩国总统、澳大利亚总理、印度总理都会出席，对吧？
It's amazing. All these leaders come every year to this ASEAN meeting.
这太令人惊叹了。所有这些领导人每年都会来参加这个东盟会议。
Why is that so? Because they can see very clearly that what ASEAN has achieved in Southeast Asia is nothing short of a miracle, because it has created an oasis of peace and prosperity for five decades now in what should be one of the most troubled regions of the world.
为什么会这样？因为他们可以非常清楚地看到，东盟在东南亚取得的成就堪称奇迹，因为在过去的五十年里，它在一个本应是世界上最动荡的地区之一，创造了一个和平与繁荣的绿洲。
And Southeast Asia, by the way, is by far the most diversified region on planet earth, because among its 700 million people.
顺便说一句，东南亚是目前地球上最多元化的地区。
And this, the fact that we have, this well established regional organization called ASEAN has provided an anchor for the region.
而这一点，即我们拥有这个名为东盟的、发展成熟的区域性组织的事实，为该地区提供了一个压舱石。
And on the basis of this anchor, all the great powers come to Southeast Asia to engage the ASEAN countries and to also improve their relations with each other.
在这个压舱石的基础之上，所有大国都来到东南亚，与东盟国家建立联系，同时也改善彼此之间的关系。
I can tell you, for example, in the past, when relationship got difficult between, say, China and Japan, the leaders would find a way of meeting in an ASEAN meeting.
我可以告诉你们，举个例子，在过去，当中国和日本之间的关系变得困难时，两国领导人总能找到办法在东盟会议上会面。
So this ecosystem of peace in East Asia that has been generated in some ways by ASEAN over the past 50 years is one remarkably positive development that we in the region and the world also needs to pay attention to.
因此，东盟在过去50年中以某种方式促成的这种东亚和平生态系统，是一个极其积极的发展，不仅我们这个地区，整个世界也都需要对此加以关注。
Because I can tell you that on the global front, the challenges will remain.
因为我可以告诉你们，在全球层面上，挑战依然会存在。
None of us know how long the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut, how much more damage it will do the global economy, how much more stress and strain it will cause.
我们谁也不知道海湾、霍尔木兹海峡将被关闭多久，不知道它会对全球经济造成多大的进一步损害，也不知道它会引发多少进一步的压力和紧张局势。
So there will be lots of these stresses and strains coming our way.
所以我们必将面临许多这样的压力和紧张局势。
But if we can preserve the ecosystem of peace in east Asia, then we'll be protecting ourselves from many of these global challenges that will inevitably come our way.
但如果我们能够维护东亚的和平生态系统，那么我们就能保护自己免受许多不可避免地将降临到我们头上的全球性挑战的影响。
So I hope that by speaking about these three positive developments, the stabilization, number one, the stabilization of the US-China relationship, number two, the resilience of the global economy, and number three, the ecosystem of peace in East Asia, I hope I've given you some good news to reflect on as you think about the state of our world.
所以我希望通过谈论这三个积极的发展——稳定，第一，中美关系的稳定；第二，全球经济的韧性；第三，东亚的和平生态系统——我希望我已经为您提供了一些在思考当前世界局势时值得深思的好消息。
I would therefore like to conclude by wishing the 20th ChinaVenture Investment Conference Annual Summit hosted by ChinaVenture Info. great success.
因此，在发言的最后，我祝愿由投中信息主办的第20届中国投资年会·年度峰会取得圆满成功。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢大家。
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